Subaru Forester — MOT statistics 2024
The Subaru Forester failed 29.3% of 16,244 first MOT attempts in 2024 ("first-time", excluding retests). Adjusted for the age of the fleet, its initial-failure ratio is 92.8 (100 = expected for its age profile). This car fails its MOT about 7% less often than expected for its age.
Age-adjusted peer: Nissan Elgrand (index 92.8) — the two published results are 0.0 index points apart.
Subaru Forester common problems: what actually fails the MOT
Suspension stands out at 25.6 per 100 tests, against 19.7 per 100 tests across UK vehicles of the same ages.
higher bar = fails more oftenrate per 100 tests
family vs national — matched to UK vehicles of the same ages — top component groups, per 100 tests. Legend: This family · National avg. Combined labels: family / national average. A gap here reflects how these vehicles are driven, used and maintained as well as how they were built — an MOT defect is a test outcome, not a breakdown.
Component-group comparison table
Each ratio carries a 95% interval. With 6 groups compared here, roughly one apparent difference in twenty is chance alone, and 1 of these is already inside an interval that includes 1.00×.
| Group | This family | Cases behind it | UK, same ages | Family / national |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suspension | 25.6 | 26,663 | 19.7 | 1.30×1.29–1.32 |
| Lamps & electrical | 23.6 | 24,543 | 23.3 | 1.02×1.00–1.03 |
| Brakes | 10.5 | 10,916 | 14.9 | 0.70×0.69–0.72 |
| Visibility | 9.4 | 9,742 | 9.2 | 1.02×1.00–1.04 · not distinguishable |
| Emissions & leaks | 7.7 | 7,977 | 5.2 | 1.48×1.45–1.51 |
| Body & structure | 7.3 | 7,603 | 7.9 | 0.92×0.90–0.94 |
| What failed | per 100 tests (this family) | per 100 tests (UK average) | ratio family / UK | What to check |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suspension pin, bush or joint excessively wornA suspension pin, bush or joint excessively worn | 9.18 | 4.87 | 1.89× | Listen for knocks over bumps — worn joints show up on the test |
| Strength or continuity of the load bearing…The strength or continuity of the load bearing structure within 30cm of any sub-frame, spring or suspension component mounting (a 'prescribed area') is significantly reduced or inadequately repaired | 4.34 | 1.12 | 3.88× | Look underneath for rust or cracks around subframe and suspension mountings |
| Engine MIL illuminated indicating a malfunctionEngine MIL illuminated indicating a malfunction | 2.90 | 1.19 | 2.45× | Ask the seller about: Engine MIL illuminated indicating a malfunction |
| Headlamp reflector or lens slightly defectiveHeadlamp reflector or lens slightly defective | 2.71 | 1.09 | 2.48× | Try every light and switch — lamps are a top failure |
| Suspension joint dust cover severely deterioratedA suspension joint dust cover severely deteriorated | 3.24 | 1.90 | 1.70× | Listen for knocks over bumps — worn joints show up on the test |
| Rear registration plate lamp or light source…A rear registration plate lamp or light source missing or inoperative in the case of multiple lamps or light sources | 4.06 | 2.83 | 1.44× | Try every light and switch — lamps are a top failure |
| Exhaust system leaking or insecureExhaust system leaking or insecure | 2.35 | 1.16 | 2.03× | Watch for smoke on a cold start — emissions failures are costly |
| Windscreen or window damaged or seriously…Windscreen or window damaged or seriously discoloured but not adversely affecting driver's view | 3.42 | 2.36 | 1.45× | Check wipers, washers and windscreen chips in the driver's view |
| Aim of a headlamp is not within limits laid down…The aim of a headlamp is not within limits laid down in the requirements | 3.55 | 2.57 | 1.38× | Try every light and switch — lamps are a top failure |
| Lamp missing, inoperative or in the case of a…A lamp missing, inoperative or in the case of a multiple light source more than 1/2 not functioning | 2.93 | 2.09 | 1.40× | Try every light and switch — lamps are a top failure |
Named defects ranked by how much more often they appear than the national average — not by raw rate.
Subaru Forester MOT advisories: what gets flagged
Suspension is highest at 50.4 per 100 tests; Identification is lowest at 3.3 per 100 tests — the gap is 47.1 per 100 tests.
higher bar = flagged more oftenadvisory items per 100 initial tests
Advisory rates table
| Group | Advisories per 100 |
|---|---|
| Suspension | 50.4 |
| Brakes | 36.8 |
| Tyres | 32 |
| Body & structure | 9 |
| Non-component advisories | 5.5 |
| Identification | 3.3 |
Advisories are wear the tester noted but didn't fail — what will need money soon.
Tyres, brakes and suspension: Subaru Forester against cars of the same age
| Age | Part | Subaru Forester | Same age, petrol and diesel | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 years | Tyres | 1.81 | 4.17 | -2.36 |
| 3 years | Brakes | 0.84 | 1.77 | -0.93 |
| 3 years | Suspension | 0.88 | 0.63 | 0.25 |
| 4 years | Tyres | 2.57 | 4.54 | -1.97 |
| 4 years | Brakes | 1.7 | 2.43 | -0.73 |
| 4 years | Suspension | 1.98 | 1.21 | 0.77 |
| 5 years | Tyres | 2.76 | 5.06 | -2.30 |
| 5 years | Brakes | 1.87 | 3.09 | -1.22 |
| 5 years | Suspension | 3.51 | 2.19 | 1.32 |
| 6 years | Tyres | 3.03 | 5.54 | -2.51 |
| 6 years | Brakes | 2.96 | 3.81 | -0.85 |
| 6 years | Suspension | 6.65 | 3.72 | 2.93 |
| 7 years | Tyres | 3.15 | 5.95 | -2.80 |
| 7 years | Brakes | 3.52 | 4.55 | -1.03 |
| 7 years | Suspension | 9.77 | 5.68 | 4.09 |
| 8 years | Tyres | 3.17 | 6.31 | -3.14 |
| 8 years | Brakes | 4.31 | 5.38 | -1.07 |
| 8 years | Suspension | 11.05 | 7.78 | 3.27 |
Failing items per 100 initial tests, 2019-2024. The comparison group is every petrol or diesel car tested at the same age, so weight and drivetrain show up rather than fleet age.
If a car like this fails, does it fail again?
A failure rate does not say whether a failure is a one-off or the start of something. This follows the same vehicles into their next ordinary MOT a year later — retests after a repair are excluded, because they follow a failure by definition. 2019-2024.
| After this year's test | Fails next year | Vehicles followed |
|---|---|---|
| It failed | 34.2% | 7,551 |
| It passed | 25.4% | 54,219 |
A failed test raises next year's chance of failing again by 8.8 percentage points. The failure most likely to come back is visibility — 35.8% of those vehicles fail again next year. Some of this is the vehicle and some is the owner: a car that was let go once tends to be let go again. One caveat: a car that fails may be sold or scrapped rather than tested again, so these figures describe the vehicles that came back.
Adjusted for how much these are actually driven
The headline index adjusts for the fleet's age. Wear, though, follows mileage: a three-year-old taxi and a three-year-old garage queen sit in the same age band. These two rows compare every car with vehicles of the same age, and then with vehicles of the same age and the same annual mileage, 2019-2024, on 103,407 tests. Both stand on the six-year corpus so they are measured on identical data — compare them with each other, not with the headline index above, which is measured on 2024 alone.
| Standardised for | Index | Reading |
|---|---|---|
| Age only | 90.2 | fails less often than expected |
| Age and annual mileage | 87.2 | fails less often than vehicles driven as much |
| Share doing under 3,000 miles a year | 3.5% | a normal spread of use |
Mileage changes little here (-3.0 points): this fleet is driven about as much as the vehicles it is compared with. One limit to keep in mind: mileage is partly a result of how often a car breaks down — one that spends weeks in the workshop covers fewer miles — so the mileage-matched figure can understate a real weakness. Tests with no usable odometer reading are left out of it.
How the Subaru Forester compares with cars of its own age and size
Not against the whole fleet — against cars of the same size class tested at the same age, 2019-2024.
| Age | Subaru Forester | Same class, same age | Difference | Tests |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 years | 6.98% | 11.7% | -4.72 pp | 5,256 |
| 4 years | 10.56% | 13.3% | -2.73 pp | 5,406 |
| 5 years | 13.19% | 15.07% | -1.87 pp | 6,374 |
| 6 years | 16.77% | 17.34% | -0.56 pp | 6,147 |
| 7 years | 20.65% | 20.15% | +0.51 pp | 5,689 |
| 8 years | 23.87% | 23.21% | +0.65 pp | 5,736 |
| 9 years | 27.38% | 26.73% | +0.65 pp | 5,511 |
| 10 years | 32.1% | 30.03% | +2.07 pp | 5,156 |
| 11 years | 33.84% | 33.45% | +0.39 pp | 4,607 |
| 12 years | 36% | 36.47% | -0.47 pp | 4,856 |
| 13 years | 38.24% | 38.89% | -0.65 pp | 5,622 |
| 14 years | 39.63% | 40.84% | -1.21 pp | 6,187 |
| 15 years | 38.85% | 42.32% | -3.47 pp | 6,618 |
| 16 years | 40.28% | 43.15% | -2.87 pp | 6,932 |
| 17 years | 41.01% | 43.53% | -2.52 pp | 6,299 |
| 18 years | 40.87% | 43.65% | -2.78 pp | 5,307 |
| 19 years | 41.41% | 43.21% | -1.8 pp | 4,132 |
| 20 years | 40.19% | 42.44% | -2.25 pp | 2,966 |
Raw first-time failure rates within each age, so fleet age cannot flatter either side. A positive difference means this model fails more often than its own class at that age.
How does the Subaru Forester perform as it gets older?
The Forester at age 16 is well below the reference at 36.1%, against 43.1% for all vehicles of the same age.
higher = larger sharecompare shares in percentage points
Chart axes: car age, years · failure-rate scale 0–47%.
Takeaway: a 10-year-old Forester has roughly a 29% chance of failing its MOT.
Data table
| Age | Subaru Forester | All vehicles | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 6.7% | 12.4% | -5.7 pp |
| 4 | 13.3% | 13.1% | +0.1 pp |
| 5 | 11.1% | 15.1% | -4.1 pp |
| 6 | 13.9% | 17.5% | -3.6 pp |
| 7 | 17.6% | 20.2% | -2.5 pp |
| 8 | 22.7% | 23.3% | -0.6 pp |
| 9 | 26.4% | 26.5% | -0.1 pp |
| 10 | 29.4% | 30.1% | -0.7 pp |
| 11 | 31.4% | 33.2% | -1.8 pp |
| 12 | 36.6% | 35.7% | +0.9 pp |
| 13 | 37.0% | 38.2% | -1.1 pp |
| 14 | 42.6% | 40.4% | +2.2 pp |
| 15 | 42.2% | 41.6% | +0.7 pp |
| 16 | 36.1% | 43.1% | -7.0 pp |
| 17 | 38.3% | 43.1% | -4.8 pp |
| 18 | 38.9% | 43.9% | -5.0 pp |
| 19 | 37.8% | 43.5% | -5.7 pp |
| 20 | 39.7% | 41.0% | -1.3 pp |
Is a Subaru Forester ULEZ compliant?
The share of classifiable 2024 Subaru Forester MOT tests likely ULEZ compliant by first-registration date is 62.0%.
Based on 15,973 classifiable initial MOT tests. This describes the tested fleet, not a specific car. MOT data do not record Euro class, so likely compliance is inferred from fuel and first-registration date. For the only authoritative answer, check the registration with TfL's official ULEZ checker.
higher = larger share likely compliantinferred from fuel and first-registration date; not a recorded Euro class
| Vehicle age at test | Likely ULEZ-compliant share | Tests |
|---|---|---|
| Under 3 years | Suppressed — sample below publication threshold Check a registration with TfL | n = 32 |
| 3–5 years | 100.0% Check a registration with TfL | n = 2,116 |
| 6–7 years | 100.0% Check a registration with TfL | n = 1,856 |
| 8 years | 100.0% Check a registration with TfL | n = 1,207 |
| 9 years | 72.4% Check a registration with TfL | n = 993 |
| 10–14 years | 39.1% Check a registration with TfL | n = 4,087 |
| 15–17 years | 82.3% Check a registration with TfL | n = 1,822 |
| 18 years | 99.9% Check a registration with TfL | n = 867 |
| 19 years | 0.0% Check a registration with TfL | n = 944 |
| 20+ years | 0.0% Check a registration with TfL | n = 2,049 |
Subaru Forester petrol vs diesel: which ages best
Diesel is highest at 34.2%; Hybrid is lowest at 8.2% — the gap is 26.0 percentage points.
higher = larger sharecompare shares in percentage points
Fuel split table
| Fuel | Tests | % failing | Gap vs best |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol | 10,450 | 30.2% | +22.0 pp |
| Diesel | 4,305 | 34.2% | +26.0 pp |
| Hybrid | 1,459 | 8.2% | +0.0 pp |
Chart sample sizes: n=10k · n=4,305 · n=1,459.
How dangerous are Subaru Forester MOT failures?
Major defects stand out at 65.5 per 100 tests, against 52.8 per 100 tests nationally.
higher bar = fails more oftenrate per 100 tests
Severity table
| Severity | This family /100 | National /100 | Family / national |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minor | 18.96 | 14.22 | 1.33× |
| Major | 65.51 | 52.75 | 1.24× |
| Dangerous | 8.19 | 11.15 | 0.73× |
Chart values: Minor 19.0 · Major 65.5 · Dangerous 8.2.
Per 100 tests on this family. National average: Minor 14.2 · Major 52.8 · Dangerous 11.2 per 100.
Does the month of a Subaru Forester MOT matter?
Jan is highest at 32.7%; Dec is lowest at 28.0% — the gap is 4.7 percentage points.
higher = larger sharecompare shares in percentage points
Chart scale: 26%–34%.
bars: Subaru Forester · dashed: all class-4 cars
Month-by-month table
| Month | Subaru Forester | All vehicles | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 32.7% | 31.12% | +1.6 pp |
| Feb | 31.06% | 29.99% | +1.1 pp |
| Mar | 29.22% | 28.26% | +1.0 pp |
| Apr | 31.16% | 29.78% | +1.4 pp |
| May | 29.54% | 28.79% | +0.8 pp |
| Jun | 30.24% | 28.15% | +2.1 pp |
| Jul | 31.02% | 29.33% | +1.7 pp |
| Aug | 29.27% | 29.2% | +0.1 pp |
| Sep | 28.64% | 28.19% | +0.4 pp |
| Oct | 32.31% | 30.34% | +2.0 pp |
| Nov | 30.99% | 30.58% | +0.4 pp |
| Dec | 27.98% | 29.33% | -1.3 pp |
Takeaway: the spread between best and worst month is 4.7 percentage points — noticeable seasonality. Seasonality partly reflects registration-date clustering, not weather.
Before reading the shape: most of it is not about cars. Britain changes its registration plates twice a year, and 18.9% of these cars were first registered in March with another17.1% in September — 36% in two months against the 17% an even spread would give. An MOT falls due three years after first registration, so the buying calendar becomes the testing calendar. That shapes how many cars are tested each month — not how often they fail: the busiest months here are not the worst ones, so read the failure line on its own and the volume behind it separately.
Subaru Forester average mileage by age
At age 8, the middle half of Foresters runs from 45,835 miles to 81,478 miles, against 63,216 miles as the median.
further right = more milesmedian is the typical car; band is p25–p75
Chart axes: car age, years · odometer scale 0–162k mi.
Does high mileage mean more Subaru Forester MOT failures at the same age?
Within the same age group, split by odometer (2024 MOTs), so this separates wear from age: at ages 15+, 20.8% of those with under 40,000 miles failed first time versus 44% of those with over 140,000 miles.Inside this age group, higher mileage goes with more failures.
| Age | Odometer | % failing | 95% interval | Tests |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3–5 | <40k miles | 8.6% | 7.3–10.1% | 1,520 |
| 3–5 | 40-70k miles | 11.7% | 9.1–14.9% | 471 (rough estimate) |
| 3–5 | 70-100k miles | 12% | 6.8–20.2% | 92 (rough estimate) |
| 6–9 | <40k miles | 12.4% | 10.5–14.6% | 993 |
| 6–9 | 40-70k miles | 19.5% | 17.6–21.4% | 1,680 |
| 6–9 | 70-100k miles | 26.8% | 24–29.7% | 927 |
| 6–9 | 100-140k miles | 28.7% | 24.5–33.3% | 401 (rough estimate) |
| 6–9 | 140k+ miles | 26.8% | 17–39.6% | 56 (rough estimate) |
| 10–14 | <40k miles | 12.9% | 8.7–18.7% | 171 (rough estimate) |
| 10–14 | 40-70k miles | 24.6% | 21.7–27.7% | 777 |
| 10–14 | 70-100k miles | 32.4% | 29.8–35% | 1,248 |
| 10–14 | 100-140k miles | 41% | 38.4–43.6% | 1,361 |
| 10–14 | 140k+ miles | 46% | 41.8–50.2% | 531 |
| 15+ | <40k miles | 20.8% | 13.1–31.6% | 72 (rough estimate) |
| 15+ | 40-70k miles | 26.5% | 22.9–30.4% | 525 |
| 15+ | 70-100k miles | 35.2% | 32.7–37.9% | 1,271 |
| 15+ | 100-140k miles | 40.9% | 38.8–42.9% | 2,219 |
| 15+ | 140k+ miles | 44% | 41.6–46.4% | 1,613 |
line: median · band: middle half of the fleet (p25–p75)
Mileage by age (p25 / median / p75)
| Age | p25 | Median | p75 | Tests |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 17,550 | 25,210 | 34,777 | 745 |
| 4 | 21,059 | 31,195 | 47,376 | 249 |
| 5 | 23,123 | 33,580 | 43,943 | 1,122 |
| 6 | 30,482 | 42,868 | 58,820 | 944 |
| 7 | 39,657 | 53,441 | 71,874 | 913 |
| 8 | 45,835 | 63,216 | 81,478 | 1,207 |
| 9 | 52,864 | 71,277 | 94,289 | 993 |
| 10 | 62,364 | 80,843 | 103,279 | 1,144 |
| 11 | 68,215 | 90,463 | 113,810 | 842 |
| 12 | 77,309 | 100,746 | 125,947 | 437 |
| 13 | 83,563 | 106,791 | 134,433 | 891 |
| 14 | 87,709 | 110,858 | 132,732 | 775 |
| 15 | 84,196 | 109,686 | 130,446 | 464 |
| 16 | 83,587 | 107,536 | 131,174 | 551 |
| 17 | 84,810 | 111,246 | 135,699 | 819 |
| 18 | 91,021 | 117,104 | 142,537 | 870 |
| 19 | 95,729 | 120,950 | 146,679 | 947 |
| 20+ | 96,419 | 124,864 | 154,431 | 2,058 |
A typical 8-year-old Forester has ~63,216 miles on the clock. Much more — ask why; much less — check for gaps in the MOT history.
Where in Britain the Subaru Forester fails its MOT most
Dundee area is highest at 44.0%; Wolverhampton area is lowest at 19.6% — the gap is 24.4 percentage points.
higher = larger sharecompare shares in percentage points
| Toughest areas | % failing | vs model overall |
|---|---|---|
| Dundee (DD) | 43.99% | +13.6 pp |
| Llandrindod Wells (LD) | 43.91% | +13.6 pp |
| Hereford (HR) | 41.55% | +11.2 pp |
| Exeter (EX) | 41.4% | +11.0 pp |
| Perth (PH) | 41.22% | +10.9 pp |
| Easiest areas | % failing | vs model overall |
|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton (WV) | 19.6% | -10.8 pp |
| Chelmsford (CM) | 21.55% | -8.8 pp |
| Kilmarnock (KA) | 21.56% | -8.8 pp |
| Coventry (CV) | 21.64% | -8.7 pp |
| Blackburn (BB) | 22.03% | -8.3 pp |
Why do areas differ?
For each external factor we correlate the area fail rate with the factor across postcode areas that have ≥800 tests of this family, then compare the bottom vs top fifth (quintile) of the factor. Correlation, not causation — factors travel together (the north is colder and often poorer; urban areas are denser and less salted). Road surface condition is joined now, for the 91 English areas the DfT publishes, and it explains nothing: the correlation with suspension failures is −0.01 and with body and structure failures 0.07. Potholes wreck wheels and tyres between tests, but by the time a car reaches the bay the road it drives on leaves no measurable trace.
In areas with the highest mot centre density this model fails 4.4 pp more often than in the lowest fifth (r=0.35, n=51 areas with ≥800 tests).
In the most coastal fifth of areas this model fails 6.6 pp more often than in the most inland fifth (r=-0.34, n=51 areas with ≥800 tests).
In areas with the highest terrain gradient this model fails 8.7 pp more often than in the lowest fifth (r=0.33, n=31 areas with ≥800 tests).
| Factor | Low Q | High Q | Gap | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOT centre density | 29.3% | 33.7% | +4.4 pp | r=0.35 |
| Distance to coast | 33.6% | 27.0% | -6.6 pp | r=-0.34 |
| Terrain gradient | 26.3% | 35.0% | +8.7 pp | r=0.33 |
Factors that only mean something combined
Some conditions are useless on their own and informative multiplied together. Frost days alone say little — Britain barely freezes. Salt tonnage alone says little — it tracks frost. Distance to the sea alone says little. Multiply the first two and divide by the third and you get an index of how hard an area attacks a car's underside, and it lines up with the corrosion defects we actually record. We built five such combinations and tested each against our own data. Three survived; two did not, and the failures are listed here on purpose — a proxy that was never checked is decoration. One survivor only survived on the second attempt: built from a crude stand-in for street parking it failed outright, and rebuilt from the census — terraced streets carrying more cars than they have driveways — it works, and carries information the salt index does not.
| Composite | Built from | Tested against | r | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underbody corrosion | frost days × salt load ÷ (distance to coast + 1) | share of tests with a corrosion defect | +0.42 | holds (116 areas) |
| Tyre wear | rain days × annual miles ÷ age at first tyre advisory | share of tests failing on tyres | +0.45 | holds (116 areas) |
| Overnight corrosion | terraced housing × cars per household × frost days | share with a corrosion defect | +0.41 | holds (102 areas) — and adds signal beyond the first index |
| Deferred maintenance | deprivation × advisory-to-failure conversion ÷ labour rate | cars repeating the same advisory | −0.26 | fails (118 areas) |
| Powertrain stress | engine capacity ÷ kerb weight | suspension, brake and emissions failures | −0.16 | fails (22 models) |
The deprivation result is the one worth dwelling on. The intuition that poorer areas defer repairs is strong enough that most people treat it as established. We tested it twice — once on raw failure rates (r = 0.04) and again, more fairly, on whether an advisory turns into a failure — and it did not hold any of the three times we tried it — on raw failure rates, on advisory-to-failure conversion, and again with deprivation measured properly inside each nation rather than England alone. We are closing it. What does predict local failure rates is the density of test centres, which is a statement about testing, not about cars.
All external-factor correlations (machine-readable)
| Factor | r | n areas | Low-Q fail % | High-Q fail % | Gap pp | Low-Q factor | High-Q factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOT centre density (per 10k vehicles) | 0.349 | 51 | 29.3 | 33.7 | +4.4 | 5.9 | 8.7 |
| Distance to coast (km) | -0.335 | 51 | 33.6 | 27.0 | -6.6 | 6.5 | 81.7 |
| Terrain gradient (% grade) | 0.330 | 31 | 26.3 | 35.0 | +8.7 | 0.5 | 3.7 |
| Urban share (0–1) | -0.330 | 51 | 34.6 | 30.6 | -4.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Income deprivation (score) | -0.262 | 41 | 28.4 | 26.0 | -2.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Road-salt proxy (g/m²-yr) | 0.116 | 51 | 32.8 | 32.4 | -0.4 | 238.8 | 742.6 |
| Frost days (days/year) | 0.094 | 51 | 32.3 | 31.4 | -0.8 | 12.1 | 41.5 |
Deprivation uses England IMD 2019 income score only (Scotland SIMD is a different scale). Salt proxy is a simplified NWSRG-style dry-salt sum from air Tmin; coastalness is distance from the area centroid to the nearest coastline.
Every dot is a postcode area — size = how many were tested there, colour = share failing. These figures are not age-adjusted: coastal and rural areas often run older fleets and salted roads, so higher raw fail rates do not automatically mean a worse local stock of this model.
Map labels: Scotland · N. England · Wales · London · S. West. Colour scale: 22%–40% failing.
Subaru Forester survival: which cars are still on the road
By age 19 is well below the reference at 69.1%, against 100.0% at the ages 4–6 reference level.
higher = larger sharecompare shares in percentage points
Chart axes: car age, years · survival vs ages 4–6 · scale 0–105%.
Survival vs fail rate by age
| Age | Tests | Survival vs ages 4–6 | Fail % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 5,256 | 88% | 6.98% |
| 4 | 5,406 | 90.5% | 10.56% |
| 5 | 6,374 | 100% | 13.19% |
| 6 | 6,147 | 100% | 16.77% |
| 7 | 5,689 | 95.2% | 20.65% |
| 8 | 5,736 | 96% | 23.87% |
| 9 | 5,511 | 92.2% | 27.38% |
| 10 | 5,156 | 86.3% | 32.1% |
| 11 | 4,607 | 77.1% | 33.84% |
| 12 | 4,856 | 81.3% | 36% |
| 13 | 5,622 | 94.1% | 38.24% |
| 14 | 6,187 | 100% | 39.63% |
| 15 | 6,618 | 100% | 38.85% |
| 16 | 6,932 | 100% | 40.28% |
| 17 | 6,299 | 100% | 41.01% |
| 18 | 5,307 | 88.8% | 40.87% |
| 19 | 4,132 | 69.1% | 41.41% |
By age 19, only about 69% as many cars of this family present for MOT as at ages 4–6 (reference n≈5,975); survivors still fail at 41.4% vs 10.6% at age 4. Older cars that still appear are a selected subset — weaker ones have already left.
How many miles does a Subaru Forester last?
100,000+ miles is highest at 40.3%; 200,000+ miles is lowest at 1.1% — the gap is 39.2 percentage points.
higher = larger sharecompare shares in percentage points
| Odometer | Tests ≥ threshold | Share of sample |
|---|---|---|
| 100,000+ miles | 41,760 | 40.28% |
| 150,000+ miles | 10,311 | 9.95% |
| 200,000+ miles | 1,171 | 1.13% |
Of 103,679 tests of this family with a usable odometer in 2024, 40.3% had reached 100k miles, 9.9% had reached 150k miles, 1.1% had reached 200k miles. This is a cross-section of cars still presenting for MOT, not a full birth cohort.
How many years is a Subaru Forester likely to last?
Bought at age 5 is highest at 13.3 years; Bought at age 15 is lowest at 4.1 years — the gap is 9.2 years.
bigger number = longer remaining lifeyears on the observed survival curve
| Age now | Typical mileage (p50) | Expected years left |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | — | at least 13.3 |
| 8 | — | at least 10.8 |
| 10 | — | at least 9.9 |
| 12 | — | at least 8.5 |
| 15 | — | at least 4.1 |
estimateEstimate only — not a warranty: a typical 10-year-old example of this family has at least 9.9 expected years of further MOT-present life. The curve is observed only until age 19, so the true figure is likely higher.
Subaru Forester faults that come together
Body & structure + Emissions & leaks stand out at 6.21×, against 1.00× if the faults were independent.
above 1.0× = more than expectedbelow 1.0× = less
| Group A | Group B | Together | Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Body, chassis, structure | Noise, emissions and leaks | 2,025 | 6.21× |
| Identification of the vehicle | Noise, emissions and leaks | 129 | 5.8× (rough estimate) |
| Road Wheels | Tyres | 33 | 5.64× (rough estimate) |
| Identification of the vehicle | Seat belts and supplementary restraint systems | 22 | 5.28× (rough estimate) |
| Noise, emissions and leaks | Seat belts and supplementary restraint systems | 302 | 4.92× (rough estimate) |
| Seat belts and supplementary restraint systems | Steering | 63 | 4.88× (rough estimate) |
| Brakes | Noise, emissions and leaks | 1,789 | 4.8× |
| Body, chassis, structure | Identification of the vehicle | 106 | 4.79× (rough estimate) |
| Noise, emissions and leaks | Road Wheels | 44 | 4.78× (rough estimate) |
| Body, chassis, structure | Road Wheels | 42 | 4.58× (rough estimate) |
| Body, chassis, structure | Seat belts and supplementary restraint systems | 279 | 4.56× (rough estimate) |
| Brakes | Seat belts and supplementary restraint systems | 306 | 4.38× (rough estimate) |
| Brakes | Road Wheels | 45 | 4.3× (rough estimate) |
| Seat belts and supplementary restraint systems | Suspension | 660 | 4.25× |
| Brakes | Identification of the vehicle | 102 | 4.04× (rough estimate) |
| Body, chassis, structure | Steering | 270 | 3.94× (rough estimate) |
| Identification of the vehicle | Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment | 219 | 3.94× (rough estimate) |
| Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment | Seat belts and supplementary restraint systems | 589 | 3.83× |
| Identification of the vehicle | Tyres | 52 | 3.68× (rough estimate) |
| Body, chassis, structure | Brakes | 1,343 | 3.62× |
| Noise, emissions and leaks | Steering | 248 | 3.6× (rough estimate) |
| Road Wheels | Visibility | 46 | 3.57× (rough estimate) |
| Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment | Noise, emissions and leaks | 2,917 | 3.56× |
| Identification of the vehicle | Visibility | 107 | 3.44× (rough estimate) |
| Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment | Road Wheels | 78 | 3.39× (rough estimate) |
| Steering | Suspension | 580 | 3.33× |
| Brakes | Suspension | 3,119 | 3.31× |
| Brakes | Tyres | 774 | 3.27× |
| Body, chassis, structure | Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment | 2,591 | 3.18× |
| Noise, emissions and leaks | Suspension | 2,581 | 3.11× |
| Noise, emissions and leaks | Tyres | 643 | 3.09× |
| Road Wheels | Suspension | 72 | 3.09× (rough estimate) |
| Brakes | Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment | 2,869 | 3.08× |
| Seat belts and supplementary restraint systems | Visibility | 265 | 3.08× (rough estimate) |
| Brakes | Steering | 238 | 3.04× (rough estimate) |
| Identification of the vehicle | Suspension | 171 | 3.04× (rough estimate) |
| Steering | Tyres | 133 | 3.04× (rough estimate) |
| Noise, emissions and leaks | Visibility | 1,388 | 3.02× |
| Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment | Steering | 520 | 3.02× |
| Body, chassis, structure | Suspension | 2,471 | 3× |
| Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment | Tyres | 1,525 | 2.93× |
| Tyres | Visibility | 828 | 2.84× |
| Seat belts and supplementary restraint systems | Tyres | 109 | 2.79× (rough estimate) |
| Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment | Suspension | 5,688 | 2.74× |
| Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment | Visibility | 3,080 | 2.68× |
| Steering | Visibility | 258 | 2.67× (rough estimate) |
| Body, chassis, structure | Visibility | 1,194 | 2.61× |
| Suspension | Tyres | 1,349 | 2.56× |
| Brakes | Visibility | 1,314 | 2.52× |
| Body, chassis, structure | Tyres | 516 | 2.49× |
| Suspension | Visibility | 2,603 | 2.24× |
| Identification of the vehicle | Steering | 15 | too few (rough estimate) |
| Road Wheels | Seat belts and supplementary restraint systems | 10 | too few (rough estimate) |
| Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment | Speedometer and speed limiter | 5 | too few (rough estimate) |
| Road Wheels | Steering | 5 | too few (rough estimate) |
Defects in «Body, chassis, structure» and «Noise, emissions and leaks» appear together 6.21× more often than chance (2,025 co-occurrences in the same test; lift≥1.3, n≥500).
Lift = how many times more often both groups appear on the same test than if independent. A pair is listed from 5 tests with both faults; the lift is shown from 20, and called above chance only when its 95% interval excludes 1 (see rough estimates).
Is low mileage better for a Subaru Forester?
Cars driven under 5,000 miles a year is well below the reference at 15.9%, against 29.9% for cars driven 8,000–12,000 miles a year.
higher = larger sharecompare shares in percentage points
| Band | Fail % | Tests |
|---|---|---|
| <5k miles/year | 15.94% | 7,603 |
| 8–12k miles/year | 29.86% | 21,371 |
| Gap (low − normal) | -13.92 pp | — |
By fuel and age
Diesel
| Age | Low-use fail % | n | Normal fail % | n | Gap pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 7.5 | 200 | 14.16 | 798 | -6.66 pp |
| 6 | 7.21 | 222 | 18.55 | 1,008 | -11.34 pp |
| 7 | 11.11 | 216 | 24.83 | 1,156 | -13.72 pp |
| 8 | 18.64 | 220 | 27.39 | 1,347 | -8.76 pp |
| 9 | 12.44 | 193 | 32.06 | 1,550 | -19.63 pp |
| 10 | 14.29 | 182 | 37.13 | 1,589 | -22.84 pp |
| 11 | 18.34 | 169 | 38.11 | 1,346 | -19.77 pp |
| 12 | 24.83 | 145 | 41.77 | 1,106 | -16.94 pp |
| 13 | 29.1 | 134 | 46.79 | 872 | -17.68 pp |
| 14 | 31.11 | 90 | 45.57 | 485 | -14.46 pp |
Petrol
| Age | Low-use fail % | n | Normal fail % | n | Gap pp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 7 | 829 | 13.82 | 977 | -6.82 pp |
| 6 | 8.89 | 754 | 19.13 | 988 | -10.24 pp |
| 7 | 12.5 | 616 | 22.09 | 842 | -9.59 pp |
| 8 | 12.38 | 541 | 26.88 | 785 | -14.49 pp |
| 9 | 16.78 | 447 | 27.26 | 686 | -10.48 pp |
| 10 | 15.95 | 351 | 35.05 | 602 | -19.1 pp |
| 11 | 19.88 | 337 | 36.31 | 661 | -16.43 pp |
| 12 | 22.01 | 427 | 38.48 | 985 | -16.46 pp |
| 13 | 24.49 | 588 | 43.77 | 1,469 | -19.28 pp |
| 14 | 27.99 | 761 | 44.6 | 1,955 | -16.61 pp |
At matched ages 5–14, cars averaging under 5k miles/year fail at 15.9% vs 29.9% for 8–12k miles/year — 13.9 pp lower (n_low=7,603, n_normal=21,371). In this family low annual use is associated with fewer MOT fails, not more — the ‘garage queen’ penalty is not visible in overall fail rates.
Which Subaru Forester engine is best?
diesel 1.8–2.0 is highest at 108.7; petrol over 2.0 is lowest at 89.2 — the gap is 19.5 points.
below 100 is betterabove 100 is worse100 = normal for this model at that age
| Fuel | Capacity | vs own age norm | Raw fail % | Tests |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| petrol | over 2.0 litre | 89.2 | 33.15% | 9,788 |
| petrol | 1.8–2.0 litre | 98.9 | 31.89% | 63,064 |
| diesel | 1.8–2.0 litre | 108.7 | 27.95% | 27,862 |
Splitting this model by fuel alone hides the thing that actually differs. Within the same badge, the diesel 1.8–2.0 runs at 108.7 against this model's own age norm while the petrol over 2.0 runs at 89.2 — a spread of 19.5 points between two cars that share a name.
Read this one with more care than the rest of the page. Age is held constant, but who buys which engine is not: the largest capacity in a range is often a performance or executive variant that is garaged, cherished and lightly driven, while the smallest is frequently a fleet or entry car worked hard from new. The gap below is real in the test records; how much of it is the engine and how much is the owner, this data cannot separate. Bands under 100 tests are not shown; bands under 5,000 tests are rough estimates.
Best year for a Subaru Forester, and the years to avoid
Build year 2020 is highest at 140.3; Build year 2018 is lowest at 91.5 — the gap is 48.8 points.
below 100 is betterabove 100 is worse100 = normal for this model at that age
build year vs the same model at the same age · 100 = as expected
Every build year with its confidence interval
| Build year | vs own age norm | 95% CI | Raw fail % | Tests | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 140.3 | 104.2–176.4 | 11.74% | 494 | worse |
| 2019 | 93.2 | 82.7–103.6 | 9.18% | 3,346 | no different |
| 2018 | 91.5 | 82.5–100.6 | 10.51% | 3,779 | no different |
| 2017 | 94.5 | 86.8–102.1 | 12.34% | 4,739 | no different |
| 2016 | 104.9 | 98.8–111 | 15.9% | 7,187 | no different |
| 2015 | 105.4 | 99.4–111.5 | 19.55% | 5,986 | no different |
| 2014 | 97.6 | 92.7–102.5 | 21.51% | 7,082 | no different |
| 2013 | 95.4 | 90.2–100.7 | 24.32% | 5,206 | no different |
| 2012 | 105.3 | 98.1–112.4 | 30.17% | 2,761 | no different |
| 2011 | 100.1 | 95.5–104.8 | 31.65% | 5,639 | no different |
| 2010 | 104 | 99.4–108.5 | 35.45% | 5,634 | no different |
| 2009 | 110.3 | 104.6–116 | 39.88% | 3,576 | worse |
| 2008 | 98.7 | 93.7–103.7 | 37.15% | 4,008 | no different |
| 2007 | 96.3 | 92.3–100.2 | 37.48% | 6,084 | no different |
| 2006 | 100.8 | 97.1–104.5 | 40.19% | 7,000 | no different |
| 2005 | 94 | 90.7–97.3 | 38.06% | 8,309 | better |
| 2004 | 96.6 | 93–100.2 | 39.11% | 6,978 | no different |
| 2003 | 103.3 | 99.3–107.3 | 42.34% | 5,989 | no different |
| 2002 | 105 | 99–111.1 | 43.54% | 2,655 | no different |
| 2001 | 105.8 | 98.3–113.4 | 43.94% | 1,709 | no different |
| 2000 | 102.6 | 93.1–112 | 43.14% | 1,050 | no different |
| 1999 | 109.3 | 96.7–121.9 | 45.43% | 634 | no different |
The best build year here is 2005 and the weakest is 2005. Comparing build years sounds simple and is not: within a single year of testing, a car's build year and its age are the same number, so a naive comparison of years is a comparison of ages wearing a disguise. Each year below is measured against the same model at the same age in other cohorts, across six years of testing — 1 of 22 years come out distinguishable from their own model's age norm.
Two limits worth knowing before you act on this. Age, test year and build year are locked together by arithmetic, so the test-year effect is taken from the observed national failure level of each year rather than estimated — it is an adjustment, not a solution.
Subaru Forester MOT repair costs
The MOT-failure repair budget per test runs from £110.27 to £209.51, against £54.85 for the test itself.
bigger number = costs morepounds per test, MOT-failing faults only
| Component | Fails per 100 tests | Typical repair | Its price | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suspension | 25.6 (nat. 15.36) | Suspension coil spring (single corner) | £180 | £46.08 |
| Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment | 23.6 (nat. 18.09) | Battery replacement (standard 12V lead-acid) | £140 | £33.04 |
| Brakes | 10.5 (nat. 11.25) | Front brake pads (parts + labour, typical hatchback) | £150 | £15.75 |
| Noise, emissions and leaks | 7.7 (nat. 3.67) | Exhaust rear silencer | £200 | £15.40 |
Multiply how often each component fails on this model by what that repair usually costs, and you get the amount an owner should expect to budget per test for MOT-failing faults only — roughly £110 to £210, on top of the test fee itself. It is a budgeting figure, not a quote: the spread between a set of pads and a set of discs is most of the range.
Prices are modal quotes from a hand-kept catalogue of published UK garage guides — we do not scrape the booking sites, their terms forbid it, so this list is short and updated by hand with a source and date against each line. Each line prices one typical repair in that group, not a full remedy, and only groups our catalogue actually covers are counted. The contrast worth noticing is the second card: the legal maximum for the test has been £54.85 since 2010, while the repairs it uncovers have followed inflation the whole time.
For scale from a different direction: Warrantywise, which sees used-car warranty claims rather than test failures, puts the average claim at £2,052 across the ten highest-claim models it ranks and £539 for Honda, the lowest-claim make in its index (Warrantywise index 2026, 1.6 million claims, cars aged 3–15). Those sit an order of magnitude above the figures in this table, and the gap is the point: a warranty claim is a gearbox or an engine, which almost never fails an MOT, while the faults that do fail one are corrosion, lamps and tyres, which no warranty pays for. The two numbers answer different questions and neither replaces the other.
Subaru Forester running costs for a fleet
Vehicles failing at age 10 stand out at 29.0%, against 11.0% at age 5, tested in the same year.
higher = larger sharecompare shares in percentage points
Failure rate and typical odometer by age
| Age | Fails | Median odometer | Tests | Gap vs age 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 6.71% | 25,210 | 745 | -4.3 pp |
| 4 | 13.25% | 31,195 | 249 | +2.2 pp |
| 5 | 11.05% | 33,580 | 1,122 | +0.0 pp |
| 6 | 13.88% | 42,868 | 944 | +2.8 pp |
| 7 | 17.63% | 53,441 | 913 | +6.6 pp |
| 8 | 22.7% | 63,216 | 1,207 | +11.6 pp |
| 9 | 26.38% | 71,277 | 993 | +15.3 pp |
| 10 | 29.37% | 80,843 | 1,144 | +18.3 pp |
| 11 | 31.35% | 90,463 | 842 | +20.3 pp |
| 12 | 36.61% | 100,746 | 437 | +25.6 pp |
| 13 | 37.04% | 106,791 | 891 | +26.0 pp |
| 14 | 42.58% | 110,858 | 775 | +31.5 pp |
| 15 | 42.24% | 109,686 | 464 | +31.2 pp |
| 16 | 36.12% | 107,536 | 551 | +25.1 pp |
| 17 | 38.34% | 111,246 | 819 | +27.3 pp |
| 18 | 38.85% | 117,104 | 870 | +27.8 pp |
| 19 | 37.8% | 120,950 | 947 | +26.7 pp |
No single year stands out as the point where this model starts costing more: the year-to-year steps in its failure rate are too small or rest on too few tests to name one (D1 rule: a step is named only with at least 2,000 tests on both sides and a jump above 3 percentage points).
Repair spend uses the same modal prices as the section above, so it inherits the same limits: one typical repair per component group, not a full remedy. Downtime is the gap between the failed test and the passed re-test, which is the window a vehicle is legally off the road.
Subaru Forester rust problems: where they corrode
Age-standardised corrosion susceptibility stands out at 2.08×, against 1.00× for the national age-standardised rate.
above 1.0× = rusts more than averagebelow 1.0× = rusts less
This Subaru Forester fails on corrosion far more often than average once age is held constant, and its owners live in areas that are saltier than most for the models we publish.
Corrosion is the one failure mode that is as much about geography as about the car. We keep the two apart on purpose: a model can look rusty simply because it is popular in Scotland, and a model can look clean simply because it is bought in Surrey. Blending them into a single score would hide which of the two is doing the work.
Exposure is this model's tests weighted by an area corrosion index built from frost days, salt load and distance to the coast — the composite validated at r = 0.42 against corrosion defects we actually record. It is published as a rank, not a raw score, because every mainstream model skews towards low-corrosion areas for the simple reason that most of Britain's cars are in the south. Susceptibility is standardised to the national age profile, so an old fleet does not get labelled a rusty model.
Does a Subaru Forester advisory become a failure?
Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment are highest at 36.1%; Non-component advisories are lowest at 0.0% — the gap is 36.1 percentage points.
higher = more likelypercentage is the observed transition probability
chance the same component fails at the next MOT, given an advisory now
| Component | Fails next time | Typical lead time | Miles of warning | Advisories tracked |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment | 36.1% | 12.1 months | 4,654 | 1,149 |
| Suspension | 24.2% | 12 months | 5,667 | 19,327 |
| Body, chassis, structure | 14.4% | 12.1 months | 4,672 | 5,366 |
| Noise, emissions and leaks | 12.2% | 12 months | 5,099 | 2,052 |
| Brakes | 11.3% | 12.1 months | 4,954 | 16,400 |
| Steering | 8.6% | 12 months | 6,768 | 620 |
| Tyres | 6.3% | 12 months | 5,721 | 14,368 |
| Seat belts and supplementary restraint systems | 5.9% | 12.1 months | 5,182 | 529 |
| Identification of the vehicle | 3.6% | 12 months | 4,950 | 2,332 |
| Non-component advisories | 0.0% | — | — | 3,807 |
This is the question an advisory note actually raises, and it needs six years of test history to answer. We followed the same vehicles from one MOT to the next across 2019–2024 and measured how often a component that was merely advised came back as a genuine failure at the next test.
Read it as a budgeting horizon, not a prophecy: the most likely component above turns into a failure for about 36 in 100 cars, and the median gap is 12.1 months and roughly 4,654 miles. The rest were repaired, sold, scrapped, or simply held. Rows with fewer than 500 tracked advisories are not shown.
What will fail next on a Subaru Forester?
Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment after a failure at age 20+ are highest at 29.3%; Brakes after a passed at age <3 are lowest at 1.4% — the gap is 27.9 percentage points.
higher = more likelypercentage is the observed transition probability
| Age | Last test | Most likely next failures | Cars tracked |
|---|---|---|---|
| <3 | passed | Visibility 3.7% · Tyres 1.8% · Brakes 1.4% | 3,022 |
| <3 | advisory | Visibility 5.1% · Tyres 4.7% · Suspension 4.5% | 594 |
| <3 | failure | Visibility 5.7% · Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 4.6% · Tyres 4.3% | 281 (rough estimate) |
| 3-5 | passed | Visibility 4.2% · Suspension 4.1% · Tyres 2.3% | 9,461 |
| 3-5 | advisory | Suspension 8.8% · Visibility 6.1% · Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 3.5% | 3,303 |
| 3-5 | failure | Suspension 9.2% · Visibility 7.6% · Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 5.9% | 1,887 |
| 6-8 | passed | Suspension 9.6% · Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 4.9% · Visibility 4.4% | 6,523 |
| 6-8 | advisory | Suspension 15.0% · Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 8.1% · Visibility 6.6% | 4,035 |
| 6-8 | failure | Suspension 16.0% · Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 11.6% · Visibility 7.4% | 3,135 |
| 9-11 | passed | Suspension 10.8% · Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 10.6% · Visibility 6.3% | 3,997 |
| 9-11 | advisory | Suspension 16.3% · Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 15.3% · Visibility 8.9% | 3,721 |
| 9-11 | failure | Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 22.1% · Suspension 21.0% · Brakes 11.9% | 3,808 |
| 12-14 | passed | Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 13.6% · Suspension 12.7% · Visibility 5.7% | 4,502 |
| 12-14 | advisory | Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 20.8% · Suspension 20.0% · Visibility 10.8% | 4,289 |
| 12-14 | failure | Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 26.7% · Suspension 22.6% · Visibility 12.3% | 5,282 |
| 15-19 | passed | Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 14.3% · Suspension 13.7% · Body, chassis, structure 7.5% | 5,959 |
| 15-19 | advisory | Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 23.8% · Suspension 23.1% · Visibility 11.5% | 6,289 |
| 15-19 | failure | Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 28.2% · Suspension 25.8% · Visibility 13.4% | 8,162 |
| 20+ | passed | Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 13.6% · Suspension 13.1% · Body, chassis, structure 9.8% | 927 |
| 20+ | advisory | Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 24.3% · Suspension 18.4% · Body, chassis, structure 16.2% | 1,132 |
| 20+ | failure | Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment 29.3% · Suspension 25.3% · Body, chassis, structure 16.8% | 1,490 |
The same chains, cut differently: given a car's age and how its last test went, which component most often causes trouble at the following one.
The pattern that repeats across every family: a failure at one test roughly doubles the chance of a failure on the same component at the next one, and an advisory sits about half-way between a clean pass and a failure. Age bands in years; probabilities are per car, not per defect item.
Subaru Forester ownership: what six years of MOTs show
The ten-day re-test pass rate is highest at 63.2%; The later re-test pass rate is lowest at 5.5% — the gap is 57.7 percentage points.
higher = larger sharecompare shares in percentage points
Failing is usually a same-week event, not a disaster. Of 20,939 failures followed through to their re-test, 31.38% were repaired and passed the same day and 63.15% within ten days; the median gap is 1 day. 58,064 defect items were cleared in the process.
Per mile driven, not per year. Dividing failures by the miles that actually went onto the odometers between consecutive tests gives 0.509 failures per 10,000 miles, on a median of 5,201 miles a year across 20,282 chains. This is the number to compare between models — an annual rate quietly rewards cars that barely leave the drive.
Two populations hide inside one model. 36% of these cars strung together three or more tests with nothing recorded at all, while 33.87% carried the same advisory three times or more — the same fault, noted, ignored, noted again. When you buy used you are buying one of those two histories, and the MOT record shows which.
Odometer anomalies: 2.112% of 20,310 chains show a reading lower than the previous test, with a median drop of 34,737 miles. We call this an anomaly and not fraud on purpose — instrument swaps, imports, unit mix-ups and keying errors all land in the same bucket. Obvious typos (drops under 100 miles or over 90% of the reading) are already excluded.
Subaru Forester safety recalls and how to check yours
DVSA recall campaigns stand out at 12.
bigger number = more recorded casescompare like-for-like scope, not sample size alone
recall campaigns launched per year
| Reference | Launched | Vehicles | Concern |
|---|---|---|---|
R/2022/266 | 19/09/2022 | 99 | THE IMPELLER DEFORMATION MAY CAUSE THE FUEL PUMP TO BECOME INOPERATIVE |
R/2021/353 | 01/11/2021 | 2,338 | POTENTIAL FAILURE OF THE IGNITION COIL MODULE CAUSING ENGINE STALL AND A NONE START CONDIT |
R/2021/352 | 01/11/2021 | 1,949 | THE BOLTS OF THE REAR STABILISER BRACKET MIGHT BECOME LOOSE |
R/2020/316 | 15/11/2020 | 2,338 | DUE TO IMPROPER ECM PROGRAMMING UNDER CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES THE IGNITION COIL MAY BE ENERG |
R/2019/106 | 08/04/2019 | 6,975 | SILICONE GAS MAY SEEP INTO STOP LIGHT SWITCH HOUSING AND LEAD TO A CONDUCTION FAILURE |
All 12 campaigns
| Reference | Launched | Build dates | Vehicles | Concern |
|---|---|---|---|---|
R/2022/266 | 19/09/2022 | 25/11/2020 – 21/06/2021 | 99 | THE IMPELLER DEFORMATION MAY CAUSE THE FUEL PUMP TO BECOME INOPERATIVE |
R/2021/353 | 01/11/2021 | 20/09/2016 – 01/10/2019 | 2,338 | POTENTIAL FAILURE OF THE IGNITION COIL MODULE CAUSING ENGINE STALL AND A NONE START CONDIT |
R/2021/352 | 01/11/2021 | 06/04/2017 – 29/05/2019 | 1,949 | THE BOLTS OF THE REAR STABILISER BRACKET MIGHT BECOME LOOSE |
R/2020/316 | 15/11/2020 | 20/09/2016 – 01/10/2019 | 2,338 | DUE TO IMPROPER ECM PROGRAMMING UNDER CERTAIN CIRCUMSTANCES THE IGNITION COIL MAY BE ENERG |
R/2019/106 | 08/04/2019 | 22/06/2010 – 22/09/2016 | 6,975 | SILICONE GAS MAY SEEP INTO STOP LIGHT SWITCH HOUSING AND LEAD TO A CONDUCTION FAILURE |
R/2019/025 | 01/03/2019 | 01/01/2013 – 31/12/2014 | 812 | THE LOAD MAY EXCEED THE VALVE SPRING'S FATIGUE STRENGTH AND THE SPRING MAY FRACTURE |
R/2018/333 | 01/01/2019 | 01/01/2013 – 31/12/2014 | 1,146 | CLUTCH PIPE MAY CONTACT BULKHEAD WIRING AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE THE ENGINE TO CUT OUT |
R/2018/141 | 23/07/2018 | 7,589 | FRONT PASSENGER AIRBAG INFLATOR MAY RUPTURE IN A DEPLOYMENT EVENT | |
R/2016/147 | 01/08/2016 | 255 | ENGINE MAY STALL | |
R/2014/127 | 30/11/2014 | 01/01/2009 – 31/12/2012 | 21,343 | BRAKE FLUID MAY LEAK |
R/2013/117 | 10/01/2014 | 80 | ENGINE MAY CUT OUT | |
R/2011/146 | 15/01/2012 | 01/01/2003 – 31/12/2008 | 22,928 | LOWER CONTROL ARMS MAY FAIL |
DVSA lists 12 safety recall campaigns for the Subaru Forester, covering roughly 67,852 vehicles in total. A recall is the manufacturer fixing a fault for free, so an open recall on your car costs nothing to clear.
Counter-intuitive, and measured on our own data: across the 25 families published here, more recalls go with a lower MOT Risk Index (r = −0.52). Heavily recalled models are not worse cars in the test bay — an active manufacturer removes the fault before it becomes an MOT failure.
Check whether a specific car has an outstanding recall — free, by registration — at DVSA's recall service. Source: DVSA vehicle safety recalls (check-vehicle-recalls.service.gov.uk), OGL.
Subaru Forester technical service bulletins: what dealers are told
US market, Subaru FORESTER, model years 2015–2022 only. A count of bulletins, not a UK failure rate.
NHTSA manufacturer communications are 1,099.
bigger number = more recorded dealer communicationsnot affected vehicles or confirmed faults
These are the issues the manufacturer fixes quietly: service communications sent to dealers without a public recall campaign. They show what the service network has been told even when the issue never became news.
United States · NHTSA manufacturer communications
| Communication year | Bulletins | Leading subjects across all years |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2 |
|
| 2013 | 4 | |
| 2014 | 45 | |
| 2015 | 41 | |
| 2016 | 84 | |
| 2017 | 39 | |
| 2018 | 84 | |
| 2019 | 124 | |
| 2020 | 143 | |
| 2021 | 135 | |
| 2022 | 91 | |
| 2023 | 76 | |
| 2024 | 87 | |
| 2025 | 96 | |
| 2026 | 48 |
Caveat worth stating plainly: this is NHTSA data about US-specification cars. British cars sold under the same name often use different gearboxes, engines and equipment, so a bulletin may describe a component that was never fitted here. The file counts dealer communications, not affected vehicles or confirmed failures, and it cannot tell you whether an individual UK car has the issue. A communication can carry more than one subject tag, so topic counts do not have to add up to the total. Source: NHTSA Manufacturer Communications API (US-market vehicles; queried model years 2015-2022). Licence: U.S. Government work / public domain · retrieved 2026-09-25.
Subaru Forester owner complaints: what goes wrong
US market, Subaru FORESTER, model years 2015–2022 only. A count of owner complaints, not a UK failure rate; NHTSA has no UK denominator.
Visibility is highest at 1,146; Brakes are lowest at 150 — the gap is 996.
bigger number = more recorded casescompare like-for-like scope, not sample size alone
| Component | Complaints | Share | MOT fail items per 100 | MOT rank | Agreement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Visibility | 1,146 | 29.8% | 9.4 | #4 | complained about, fails occasionally |
| Lamps & electrical | 672 | 17.5% | 23.6 | #2 | complained about and fails often |
| Restraints | 539 | 14.0% | not in top 6 | — | complained about, rarely an MOT failure |
| Engine (not MOT-tested) | 513 | 13.3% | not in top 6 | — | complained about, rarely an MOT failure |
| Transmission (not MOT-tested) | 300 | 7.8% | not in top 6 | — | complained about, rarely an MOT failure |
| Brakes | 150 | 3.9% | 10.5 | #3 | complained about and fails often |
Two different populations answering two different questions: the MOT records what an inspector can measure once a year, the complaint file records what annoyed or frightened an owner on the road. A component high in one column and absent from the other is the interesting case — driver-assistance and electronics dominate complaints while almost never appearing as an MOT failure item.
What the reports actually say
I was parking at the dentist office in their parking lot going slow, turned into a parking space and thought i was slowly braking but my car lunged forward and hit a tree. I would normally be minimally braking, so I'm not sure what happened but it was sudden. I could have hit the gas pedal but i would have pressed it a lot I think for the sudden lunge to happen.
Codes for B1760 and B1650 present, intermittent SRS light for the passenger airbag. Passengers put at risk in event of crash. SRS sensor issues seem to be common for this vehicle according to online databases and dealership technicians.
US owners have filed 3,845 complaints about the equivalent Subaru Forester to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, including 245 that mention a crash, 43 a fire and 137 an injury. These are owner reports, not verified findings — but they are the only large public record of what drivers themselves notice, and they cover the years between MOT tests.
Caveat worth stating plainly: US-specification cars, self-selected reporters, no denominator — complaint counts scale with how many cars were sold there and how motivated owners are to file. The mechanical gap matters as much as the statistical one: American cars of the same name often carry different gearboxes, engines and equipment — automatics where Britain buys manuals — so a drivetrain complaint filed in Ohio may describe a part that was never fitted here. Read the ranking inside a model, not between models, and treat drivetrain entries with particular caution. Source: NHTSA ODI consumer complaints (US market, public domain) — US-spec vehicles, indicative only.
Subaru Forester inspection results in other countries
Norway PKK stands out at 37.5%, against 33.7% nationally.
higher = larger sharecompare shares in percentage points
| Country | Test | This model fails | National average | Position | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | MOT (class 4) | 29.3% | 26.01% | +3.3 pp | 16,244 |
| Norway | PKK | 37.5% | 33.7% | +3.8 pp | 12,670 |
| Netherlands | APK | 51.1% | 50.8% | +0.3 pp | 8,508 |
| Finland | Katsastus | 25.7% | 26.3% | -0.6 pp | 6,664 |
The verdict is consistent across every regime where the difference is clear, which is the strongest form this comparison takes: independent inspectorates, different rulebooks, same direction of travel.
| Fault area | Share |
|---|---|
| Axles, wheels and suspension | 53.8% |
| Brake systems | 17% |
| Environmental hazards | 13.6% |
| Chassis and body | 7.6% |
| Lighting devices and electrical equipment | 3.1% |
Useful as a cross-check on the UK defect table above: the categories are named differently, but a component that dominates in both regimes is a genuine weak point of the model rather than an artefact of one country's testing style.
| Code | Fault | Recorded | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
210 | Tyre pressure not at the correct value | 1,936 | failure |
497 | Number-plate light not working or missing | 836 | failure |
516 | Dipped headlight incorrectly aimed | 800 | failure |
584 | Sidelight not working properly | 660 | failure |
391 | Wipers leave insufficient visibility | 527 | failure |
115 | Exhaust not gas-tight or venting unsafely | 508 | failure |
205 | Tyre with insufficient tread | 498 | failure |
190 | Wheel bearing wear audible or felt | 412 | failure |
Worth dwelling on how mundane the top of that list is: tyre pressure, tread depth, headlight aim. The Dutch APK records 1.341 defects per inspection against a much higher national failure rate than Britain's, and the reason is not that Dutch cars are worse — it is that the two regimes draw the line between "note it" and "fail it" in different places. Codes are the RDW's own; the English wording here is our translation of the Dutch original.
Britain is not the only country that inspects every car every year, and the Subaru Forester is on the road in all of them. Each national regime writes its own rules, so the pass rates below are not comparable to each other — what does travel across a border is whether a model sits above or below its own country's average.
One caveat before you read the UK row: these are raw failure rates, because no other country publishes the age detail our index needs. This model's raw UK rate looks worse than the national average while its age-adjusted index is 92.8 — the fleet here is unusually old, and the raw column silently credits that. The index above is the fair comparison; this table is for reading each country against itself.
Rows with fewer than 500 inspections are not published. Sources: Statens vegvesen — Periodisk kjøretøykontroll (PKK) 2024, CC BY 4.0; RDW open data — Meldingen Keuringsinstantie + Geconstateerde Gebreken + Gekentekende voertuigen (2024), CC0. Not an RDW endorsement.; Traficom — Periodic inspections of cars by model / by model and fault object 2024, CC BY 4.0. Adapted; licences and full notice.
Subaru Forester MOT: quick answers
Subaru Forester MOT Risk Index is well below the reference at 92.8, against 100 for a car with the same age profile.
below 100 is betterabove 100 is worse100 = normal for this model at that age
- What is the Subaru Forester first-time MOT pass rate?
- 70.7% of first attempts passed in 2024 (16,244 tests). This is the first-time figure: retests after repair are excluded. Basis: first-time, excluding retests.
- Why does this number differ from other sites?
- Other sites often report a pass rate that includes retests or counts all attempts. Our 29.3% figure is the first-time initial failure rate, using 16,244 primary tests as the denominator (first-time, excluding retests). The age-adjusted MOT initial-failure ratio 92.8 is shown separately because raw rates compare fleet age as well as cars.
Compare the Subaru Forester with other cars
Audi A1 is highest at 93.1; Toyota Corolla is lowest at 92.7 — the gap is 0.4 points.
below 100 is betterabove 100 is worse100 = normal for this model at that age
Same brand
All Subaru MOT statisticsSubaru Impreza MOT stats
Similar risk
Nissan Elgrand (index 92.8)Toyota Corolla (index 92.7)Audi A1 (index 93.1)
Same size class
how Skoda Kamiq compareshow Volkswagen ID.3 compareshow Kia XCeed compares
By build year
Subaru Forester 1999Subaru Forester 2000Subaru Forester 2001Subaru Forester 2002Subaru Forester 2003Subaru Forester 2004Subaru Forester 2005Subaru Forester 2006Subaru Forester 2007Subaru Forester 2008Subaru Forester 2009Subaru Forester 2010Subaru Forester 2011Subaru Forester 2012Subaru Forester 2013Subaru Forester 2014Subaru Forester 2015Subaru Forester 2016Subaru Forester 2017Subaru Forester 2018Subaru Forester 2019Subaru Forester 2020
By area
Subaru Forester MOT failure rate by postcode area
By failure group
Subaru Forester body, chassis and structure failuresSubaru Forester brakes failuresSubaru Forester vehicle identification failuresSubaru Forester lamps, reflectors and electrics failuresSubaru Forester noise, emissions and leaks failuresSubaru Forester road wheels failuresSubaru Forester seat belts and airbags failuresSubaru Forester steering failuresSubaru Forester suspension failuresSubaru Forester tyres failuresSubaru Forester visibility failures
Inspections abroad
Subaru Forester in NorwaySubaru Forester in FinlandSubaru Forester in the Netherlands
Data details & how to cite
Scope: class-4 vehicles (cars), initial tests only, outcomes pass / fail / fixed-on-the-spot at the station (PRS counts towards the failure rate — the defect was present at arrival). Index = observed initial failures ÷ failures expected for this fleet's exact age profile, ×100; margin of error is a 95% confidence interval. Covers ALL generations together — a 3-year-old and a 15-year-old are very different cars; a generation split is on the roadmap. Dataset release dataset_release_id=dvsa-2024-v2, frozen baseline; headline claim_id=family-stats:subaru-forester:dvsa-2024-v2. Full method: methodology.
Cite: MOT Risk Index (2026). Subaru Forester MOT statistics 2024 (data release dvsa-2024-v2; downloadable dataset motriskindex-families-2024-v5, doi:10.5281/zenodo.22975051). https://motriskindex.co.uk/cars/subaru-forester/ · Published 2026-07-30.