Toyota Estima 2015: MOT failure rate for its age

25.3% of 3,138 MOT tests of the Toyota Estima first registered in 2015 failed at the first attempt (2019–2024; retests excluded). Against this model's own normal rate at the same ages the index is 112.1 (95% CI 104.3–119.9; 100 = normal for this model at that age): the 2015 Toyota Estima fails more often than other build years of the same model at the same age. This is a rough estimate from a smaller sample.

Toyota Estima built in 2015 at a glance
Measure	Value	Unit	Compared with	Years	Tests
Failed first time	25.3	%	all ages tested	2019–2024	3138
Index against this model at the same age (95% CI 104.3–119.9)	112.1	index	100 = normal for this model at that age	2019–2024	3138
Rank among this model's 19 build years	15	of 19	1 = fails least for its age	2019–2024	3138
Tested in 2024	809	tests	median 94,452 miles	2024	809

Built 2015 against Toyota Estima normal for the age: first-time MOT failure share at each age, age 4: 8.2% vs 31%; age 5: 12.1% vs 26.9%; age 6: 31.8% vs 24.6%; age 7: 25.4% vs 21.2%; age 8: 23.8% vs 22.7%; age 9: 25.6% vs 20.8%. Axis from 0% to 40%. DVSA MOT bulk data, 2019–2024.

Check a 2015 Toyota Estima by registration · All Toyota Estima MOT statistics · Download the build-year table (CSV)

Data release dvsa-2024-v2 (24 Sep 2026) · page updated 30 Sep 2026 · full dataset (v5).

How does the 2015 Toyota Estima fail at each age?

Cars built in 2015 were tested at ages 4 to 9 between 2019 and 2024. Each row compares their first-time failure share with what this model normally shows at that age, after allowing for the overall failure level of each test year.

Toyota Estima built 2015: first-time MOT failure by age, against the model's normal rate at that age (2019–2024)
Age	Tests	Failed, %	95% interval	Normal for this model at that age, %	Index (100 = normal)
4	73 (rough estimate)	8.2	3.8–16.8	31	26.5
5	116 (rough estimate)	12.1	7.3–19.2	26.9	44.9
6	573	31.8	28.1–35.7	24.6	129
7	728	25.4	22.4–28.7	21.2	119.8
8	839	23.8	21.1–26.8	22.7	104.9
9	809	25.6	22.7–28.7	20.8	123.1

Source: DVSA MOT bulk data · Window: 2019–2024 · n = 3,138 (initial tests) · Method: normal rate = this model's first-time failure share at that age across its build years (cells of 400+ tests), adjusted for each test year's overall level; cells of 30+ tests, under 500 marked rough · Updated: 30 Sep 2026 · Release: dvsa-2024-v2 · CSV

What fails most on the 2015 Toyota Estima?

The most common failure group on cars built in 2015 is lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment: 32 items per 100 first tests, against 28.3 across all build years of the Toyota Estima. These counts are not age-adjusted: cars built in 2015 were tested at ages 4 to 9.

Failure items per 100 first tests, Toyota Estima built 2015 against the Toyota Estima in all build years (2019–2024, not age-adjusted)
Failure group	Built 2015, per 100	All build years, per 100	Items
Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment	32	28.3	1,004
Suspension	17.9	19.3	562
Brakes	7.2	6.4	225
Tyres	6.4	5.3	200
Visibility	5.8	6.1	182

Source: DVSA MOT bulk data · Window: 2019–2024 · n = 3,138 (initial tests of this build year) · Method: failure items grouped by DVSA's top-level defect groups, per 100 initial tests; groups with 30+ items · Updated: 30 Sep 2026 · Release: dvsa-2024-v2 · CSV

How does 2015 compare with the years around it?

Among the 19 published build years of the Toyota Estima, 2015 ranks 15 (1 = fails least for its age). 2014: index 95.2. 2016: index 105.8.

Toyota Estima build years: index against the model at the same age (2019–2024)
Build year	Index (100 = normal)	95% interval	Verdict	Tests
2002	132.7	118.2–147.1	worse (rough estimate)	752
2003	127.1	115.2–139.1	worse (rough estimate)	1,055
2004	114.1	103.0–125.2	worse (rough estimate)	1,241
2005	121.7	109.4–133.9	worse (rough estimate)	1,162
2006	96.7	91.0–102.4	no different	4,390
2007	102.9	97.0–108.8	no different	4,503
2008	96.6	91.2–101.9	no different	5,613
2009	94.7	89.0–100.4	no different	5,372
2010	99.8	93.7–106.0	no different	5,032
2011	99.3	92.5–106.2	no different (rough estimate)	4,139
2012	97.4	90.4–104.4	no different	4,128
2013	99.2	92.5–105.9	no different	4,404
2014	95.2	88.7–101.8	no different (rough estimate)	3,953
2015	112.1	104.3–119.9	worse (rough estimate)	3,138
2016	105.8	99.1–112.5	no different (rough estimate)	3,828
2017	100.3	93.1–107.4	no different (rough estimate)	3,100
2018	97.4	89.9–104.9	no different (rough estimate)	2,562
2019	92.2	84.9–99.6	better (rough estimate)	2,475
2020	109.0	98.1–119.8	no different (rough estimate)	1,332

Source: DVSA MOT bulk data · Window: 2019–2024 · n = 62,179 (initial tests) · Method: observed failures against those expected for the same model at the same ages, test-year level adjusted; verdict follows the printed one-decimal bound · Updated: 30 Sep 2026 · Release: dvsa-2024-v2 · CSV

How to cite this page

MOT Risk Index (2026). Toyota Estima 2015 MOT statistics (data release dvsa-2024-v2; full dataset motriskindex-families-2024-v5, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22975051), updated 30 September 2026. motriskindex.co.uk/cars/toyota-estima/2015/

How every figure is calculated: methodology. Age, test year and build year are tied together (age = test year − build year), so the test-year level is taken as observed, not estimated.

Other pages for this model