Volkswagen Caravelle 2004: MOT failure rate for its age

45.3% of 3,176 MOT tests of the Volkswagen Caravelle first registered in 2004 failed at the first attempt (2019–2024; retests excluded). Against this model's own normal rate at the same ages the index is 98.9 (95% CI 93.8–104.0; 100 = normal for this model at that age): the 2004 build year is no different from other years of the same model at the same age. This is a rough estimate from a smaller sample.

Volkswagen Caravelle built in 2004 at a glance
Measure	Value	Unit	Compared with	Years	Tests
Failed first time	45.3	%	all ages tested	2019–2024	3176
Index against this model at the same age (95% CI 93.8–104.0)	98.9	index	100 = normal for this model at that age	2019–2024	3176
Rank among this model's 23 build years	11	of 23	1 = fails least for its age	2019–2024	3176
Tested in 2024	490	tests	median 168,432 miles	2024	490

Built 2004 against Volkswagen Caravelle normal for the age: first-time MOT failure share at each age, age 15: 44.5% vs 48.2%; age 16: 44% vs 46.5%; age 17: 46.7% vs 46%; age 18: 46.9% vs 45.9%; age 19: 44.5% vs 43.9%; age 20: 45.3% vs 44.2%. Axis from 0% to 50%. DVSA MOT bulk data, 2019–2024.

Check a 2004 Volkswagen Caravelle by registration · All Volkswagen Caravelle MOT statistics · Download the build-year table (CSV)

Data release dvsa-2024-v2 (24 Sep 2026) · page updated 30 Sep 2026 · full dataset (v5).

How does the 2004 Volkswagen Caravelle fail at each age?

Cars built in 2004 were tested at ages 15 to 20 between 2019 and 2024. Each row compares their first-time failure share with what this model normally shows at that age, after allowing for the overall failure level of each test year.

Volkswagen Caravelle built 2004: first-time MOT failure by age, against the model's normal rate at that age (2019–2024)
Age	Tests	Failed, %	95% interval	Normal for this model at that age, %	Index (100 = normal)
15	553	44.5	40.4–48.7	48.2	92.3
16	525	44	39.8–48.3	46.5	94.6
17	531	46.7	42.5–51	46	101.6
18	544	46.9	42.7–51.1	45.9	102.1
19	533	44.5	40.3–48.7	43.9	101.2
20	490 (rough estimate)	45.3	41–49.7	44.2	102.6

Source: DVSA MOT bulk data · Window: 2019–2024 · n = 3,176 (initial tests) · Method: normal rate = this model's first-time failure share at that age across its build years (cells of 400+ tests), adjusted for each test year's overall level; cells of 30+ tests, under 500 marked rough · Updated: 30 Sep 2026 · Release: dvsa-2024-v2 · CSV

What fails most on the 2004 Volkswagen Caravelle?

The most common failure group on cars built in 2004 is lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment: 54.7 items per 100 first tests, against 29.3 across all build years of the Volkswagen Caravelle. These counts are not age-adjusted: cars built in 2004 were tested at ages 15 to 20.

Failure items per 100 first tests, Volkswagen Caravelle built 2004 against the Volkswagen Caravelle in all build years (2019–2024, not age-adjusted)
Failure group	Built 2004, per 100	All build years, per 100	Items
Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment	54.7	29.3	1,736
Suspension	42.9	25.8	1,364
Brakes	30.8	20.8	978
Visibility	11.4	12.9	362
Body, chassis, structure	10.7	13.9	341

Source: DVSA MOT bulk data · Window: 2019–2024 · n = 3,176 (initial tests of this build year) · Method: failure items grouped by DVSA's top-level defect groups, per 100 initial tests; groups with 30+ items · Updated: 30 Sep 2026 · Release: dvsa-2024-v2 · CSV

How does 2004 compare with the years around it?

Among the 23 published build years of the Volkswagen Caravelle, 2004 ranks 11 (1 = fails least for its age). 2003: index 102.0. 2005: index 101.7.

Volkswagen Caravelle build years: index against the model at the same age (2019–2024)
Build year	Index (100 = normal)	95% interval	Verdict	Tests
1998	102.5	92.8–112.1	no different (rough estimate)	891
1999	102.0	94.1–109.8	no different (rough estimate)	1,362
2000	98.6	92.7–104.4	no different (rough estimate)	2,387
2001	99.4	94.5–104.2	no different (rough estimate)	3,502
2002	96.8	92.5–101.1	no different	4,327
2003	102.0	97.2–106.8	no different (rough estimate)	3,700
2004	98.9	93.8–104.0	no different (rough estimate)	3,176
2005	101.7	97.2–106.3	no different	4,151
2006	105.1	100.1–110.1	worse (rough estimate)	3,708
2007	100.8	95.8–105.9	no different (rough estimate)	3,581
2008	105.3	99.8–110.8	no different (rough estimate)	3,405
2009	106.2	99.4–113.0	no different (rough estimate)	2,438
2010	97.3	91.8–102.8	no different (rough estimate)	3,666
2011	94.0	88.6–99.4	better (rough estimate)	3,964
2012	95.0	89.8–100.1	no different	4,860
2013	90.8	85.1–96.5	better	4,189
2014	96.8	90.2–103.3	no different (rough estimate)	3,697
2015	107.5	100.9–114.2	worse	4,282
2016	108.2	102.2–114.1	worse	6,040
2017	96.4	90.0–102.8	no different	5,025
2018	107.7	98.3–117.2	no different (rough estimate)	2,682
2019	93.8	84.3–103.4	no different (rough estimate)	2,462
2020	94.3	80.7–107.9	no different (rough estimate)	1,328

Source: DVSA MOT bulk data · Window: 2019–2024 · n = 78,823 (initial tests) · Method: observed failures against those expected for the same model at the same ages, test-year level adjusted; verdict follows the printed one-decimal bound · Updated: 30 Sep 2026 · Release: dvsa-2024-v2 · CSV

How to cite this page

MOT Risk Index (2026). Volkswagen Caravelle 2004 MOT statistics (data release dvsa-2024-v2; full dataset motriskindex-families-2024-v5, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22975051), updated 30 September 2026. motriskindex.co.uk/cars/volkswagen-caravelle/2004/

How every figure is calculated: methodology. Age, test year and build year are tied together (age = test year − build year), so the test-year level is taken as observed, not estimated.

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