Toyota Hiace 2015: MOT failure rate for its age

35.1% of 208 MOT tests of the Toyota Hiace first registered in 2015 failed at the first attempt (2019–2024; retests excluded). Against this model's own normal rate at the same ages the index is 124.2 (95% CI 95.7–152.7; 100 = normal for this model at that age): the 2015 build year is no different from other years of the same model at the same age. This is a rough estimate from a smaller sample.

Toyota Hiace built in 2015 at a glance
Measure	Value	Unit	Compared with	Years	Tests
Failed first time	35.1	%	all ages tested	2019–2024	208
Index against this model at the same age (95% CI 95.7–152.7)	124.2	index	100 = normal for this model at that age	2019–2024	208
Rank among this model's 18 build years	18	of 18	1 = fails least for its age	2019–2024	208
Tested in 2024	100	tests	median 99,719 miles	2024	100

Built 2015 against Toyota Hiace normal for the age: first-time MOT failure share at each age, age 6: 33.3% vs n/a%; age 7: 31.8% vs n/a%; age 8: 34.3% vs 28.4%; age 9: 36% vs 28.1%. Axis from 0% to 40%. DVSA MOT bulk data, 2019–2024.

Check a 2015 Toyota Hiace by registration · All Toyota Hiace MOT statistics · Download the build-year table (CSV)

Data release dvsa-2024-v2 (24 Sep 2026) · page updated 30 Sep 2026 · full dataset (v5).

How does the 2015 Toyota Hiace fail at each age?

Cars built in 2015 were tested at ages 6 to 9 between 2019 and 2024. Each row compares their first-time failure share with what this model normally shows at that age, after allowing for the overall failure level of each test year.

Toyota Hiace built 2015: first-time MOT failure by age, against the model's normal rate at that age (2019–2024)
Age	Tests	Failed, %	95% interval	Normal for this model at that age, %	Index (100 = normal)
6	108 (rough estimate)	33.3	25.2–42.7	not available	not available
7	107 (rough estimate)	31.8	23.7–41.1	not available	not available
8	108 (rough estimate)	34.3	26–43.6	28.4	120.6
9	100 (rough estimate)	36	27.3–45.8	28.1	128.1

Source: DVSA MOT bulk data · Window: 2019–2024 · n = 423 (initial tests) · Method: normal rate = this model's first-time failure share at that age across its build years (cells of 400+ tests), adjusted for each test year's overall level; cells of 30+ tests, under 500 marked rough · Updated: 30 Sep 2026 · Release: dvsa-2024-v2 · CSV

What fails most on the 2015 Toyota Hiace?

The most common failure group on cars built in 2015 is lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment: 38.3 items per 100 first tests, against 30.8 across all build years of the Toyota Hiace. These counts are not age-adjusted: cars built in 2015 were tested at ages 6 to 9.

Failure items per 100 first tests, Toyota Hiace built 2015 against the Toyota Hiace in all build years (2019–2024, not age-adjusted)
Failure group	Built 2015, per 100	All build years, per 100	Items
Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment	38.3	30.8	162
Body, chassis, structure	15.8	12.4	67
Suspension	15.1	27.7	64
Visibility	11.1	15.6	47
Brakes	9.2	16.2	39

Source: DVSA MOT bulk data · Window: 2019–2024 · n = 423 (initial tests of this build year) · Method: failure items grouped by DVSA's top-level defect groups, per 100 initial tests; groups with 30+ items · Updated: 30 Sep 2026 · Release: dvsa-2024-v2 · CSV

How does 2015 compare with the years around it?

Among the 18 published build years of the Toyota Hiace, 2015 ranks 18 (1 = fails least for its age). 2014: index 107.7.

Toyota Hiace build years: index against the model at the same age (2019–2024)
Build year	Index (100 = normal)	95% interval	Verdict	Tests
1998	101.5	94.0–108.9	no different (rough estimate)	1,694
1999	99.0	92.6–105.4	no different (rough estimate)	2,229
2000	103.4	98.4–108.5	no different (rough estimate)	3,843
2001	99.0	94.8–103.3	no different	5,265
2002	99.3	95.5–103.2	no different	6,565
2003	104.0	100.3–107.7	worse	7,439
2004	102.2	98.7–105.8	no different	8,280
2005	98.2	94.8–101.6	no different	8,916
2006	100.3	97.0–103.6	no different	9,942
2007	96.0	93.1–99.0	better	12,317
2008	97.0	93.8–100.3	no different	10,699
2009	97.3	92.9–101.8	no different	5,898
2010	100.1	95.3–104.8	no different	5,453
2011	100.3	94.2–106.4	no different (rough estimate)	3,423
2012	101.5	87.4–115.5	no different (rough estimate)	672
2013	109.1	88.4–129.7	no different (rough estimate)	340
2014	107.7	80.7–134.7	no different (rough estimate)	200
2015	124.2	95.7–152.7	no different (rough estimate)	208

Source: DVSA MOT bulk data · Window: 2019–2024 · n = 93,383 (initial tests) · Method: observed failures against those expected for the same model at the same ages, test-year level adjusted; verdict follows the printed one-decimal bound · Updated: 30 Sep 2026 · Release: dvsa-2024-v2 · CSV

How to cite this page

MOT Risk Index (2026). Toyota Hiace 2015 MOT statistics (data release dvsa-2024-v2; full dataset motriskindex-families-2024-v5, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22975051), updated 30 September 2026. motriskindex.co.uk/cars/toyota-hiace/2015/

How every figure is calculated: methodology. Age, test year and build year are tied together (age = test year − build year), so the test-year level is taken as observed, not estimated.

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