Toyota Alphard 2002: MOT failure rate for its age

26.8% of 932 MOT tests of the Toyota Alphard first registered in 2002 failed at the first attempt (2019–2024; retests excluded). Against this model's own normal rate at the same ages the index is 99.6 (95% CI 87.3–111.9; 100 = normal for this model at that age): the 2002 build year is no different from other years of the same model at the same age. This is a rough estimate from a smaller sample.

Toyota Alphard built in 2002 at a glance
Measure	Value	Unit	Compared with	Years	Tests
Failed first time	26.8	%	all ages tested	2019–2024	932
Index against this model at the same age (95% CI 87.3–111.9)	99.6	index	100 = normal for this model at that age	2019–2024	932
Rank among this model's 16 build years	6	of 16	1 = fails least for its age	2019–2024	932
Tested in 2024	96	tests	median 79,347 miles	2024	96

Built 2002 against Toyota Alphard normal for the age: first-time MOT failure share at each age, age 17: 23.4% vs 27.4%; age 18: 30.4% vs 25.4%; age 19: 29.9% vs 27.8%; age 20: 24.2% vs 30.2%; age 21: 23.6% vs n/a%; age 22: 25% vs n/a%. Axis from 0% to 40%. DVSA MOT bulk data, 2019–2024.

Check a 2002 Toyota Alphard by registration · All Toyota Alphard MOT statistics · Download the build-year table (CSV)

Data release dvsa-2024-v2 (24 Sep 2026) · page updated 30 Sep 2026 · full dataset (v5).

How does the 2002 Toyota Alphard fail at each age?

Cars built in 2002 were tested at ages 17 to 22 between 2019 and 2024. Each row compares their first-time failure share with what this model normally shows at that age, after allowing for the overall failure level of each test year.

Toyota Alphard built 2002: first-time MOT failure by age, against the model's normal rate at that age (2019–2024)
Age	Tests	Failed, %	95% interval	Normal for this model at that age, %	Index (100 = normal)
17	389 (rough estimate)	23.4	19.5–27.8	27.4	85.2
18	365 (rough estimate)	30.4	25.9–35.3	25.4	119.9
19	87 (rough estimate)	29.9	21.3–40.2	27.8	107.5
20	91 (rough estimate)	24.2	16.5–33.9	30.2	80.1
21	89 (rough estimate)	23.6	16–33.4	not available	not available
22	96 (rough estimate)	25	17.4–34.5	not available	not available

Source: DVSA MOT bulk data · Window: 2019–2024 · n = 1,117 (initial tests) · Method: normal rate = this model's first-time failure share at that age across its build years (cells of 400+ tests), adjusted for each test year's overall level; cells of 30+ tests, under 500 marked rough · Updated: 30 Sep 2026 · Release: dvsa-2024-v2 · CSV

What fails most on the 2002 Toyota Alphard?

The most common failure group on cars built in 2002 is lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment: 30.2 items per 100 first tests, against 29.2 across all build years of the Toyota Alphard. These counts are not age-adjusted: cars built in 2002 were tested at ages 17 to 22.

Failure items per 100 first tests, Toyota Alphard built 2002 against the Toyota Alphard in all build years (2019–2024, not age-adjusted)
Failure group	Built 2002, per 100	All build years, per 100	Items
Lamps, reflectors and electrical equipment	30.2	29.2	337
Suspension	22.5	22.6	251
Brakes	8.6	5.9	96
Tyres	8.6	8.4	96
Visibility	7.4	5.8	83

Source: DVSA MOT bulk data · Window: 2019–2024 · n = 1,117 (initial tests of this build year) · Method: failure items grouped by DVSA's top-level defect groups, per 100 initial tests; groups with 30+ items · Updated: 30 Sep 2026 · Release: dvsa-2024-v2 · CSV

How does 2002 compare with the years around it?

Among the 16 published build years of the Toyota Alphard, 2002 ranks 6 (1 = fails least for its age). 2003: index 106.1.

Toyota Alphard build years: index against the model at the same age (2019–2024)
Build year	Index (100 = normal)	95% interval	Verdict	Tests
2002	99.6	87.3–111.9	no different (rough estimate)	932
2003	106.1	98.4–113.8	no different (rough estimate)	2,583
2004	108.9	103.0–114.8	worse	4,610
2005	105.1	98.8–111.3	no different	4,153
2006	99.8	94.2–105.3	no different	5,106
2007	89.8	84.3–95.3	better	4,817
2008	94.0	86.9–101.1	no different (rough estimate)	3,068
2009	73.0	59.8–86.2	better (rough estimate)	699
2010	94.3	78.9–109.8	no different (rough estimate)	683
2014	104.9	80.9–129.0	no different (rough estimate)	225
2015	113.4	101.8–125.1	worse (rough estimate)	1,034
2016	104.3	96.2–112.4	no different (rough estimate)	1,969
2017	103.2	95.8–110.7	no different (rough estimate)	2,277
2018	100.6	92.6–108.6	no different (rough estimate)	1,975
2019	99.2	89.4–108.9	no different (rough estimate)	1,312
2020	109.9	98.2–121.6	no different (rough estimate)	1,018

Source: DVSA MOT bulk data · Window: 2019–2024 · n = 36,461 (initial tests) · Method: observed failures against those expected for the same model at the same ages, test-year level adjusted; verdict follows the printed one-decimal bound · Updated: 30 Sep 2026 · Release: dvsa-2024-v2 · CSV

How to cite this page

MOT Risk Index (2026). Toyota Alphard 2002 MOT statistics (data release dvsa-2024-v2; full dataset motriskindex-families-2024-v5, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22975051), updated 30 September 2026. motriskindex.co.uk/cars/toyota-alphard/2002/

How every figure is calculated: methodology. Age, test year and build year are tied together (age = test year − build year), so the test-year level is taken as observed, not estimated.

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